The German Bundesliga has been back for three game weeks and so far, we’ve seen an interesting set of results that show how home advantage could be made redundant with a significant trend.
It may only be a small sample size, but it says a lot about the influence of crowds.
While it is hard to judge whether it’s a sign of things to come given the rarity of the coronavirus situation, it’s tough to look past it if you’re trying to tip future results in the Bundesliga.
Since the league restart on May 16th there have been 36 fixtures in total, but only eight of them have seen the home side go on to pick up the three points. Half of those victories came from top-four sides Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach.
It means that the percentage of wins by a home team sits at just 22.2% since the Bundesliga returned behind closed doors.
It does paint a clear picture to suggest that a good home crowd advantage does have a significant bearing on the result – especially if a team is chasing an equaliser or match-winner.
However, in the current climate it’s the teams on their travels who are finding it easier to pick up points, a reversal of the common thought that you must maximise points gained on the table in home comforts.
It could simply just be an anomaly, but without those supporters cheering from the stands, the thought of a home team gaining an advantage over the opposition becomes irrelevant.
Without crowds, home teams simply don’t have that extra backing to push them on, eliminating the pressure away teams face when visiting.
If the interesting Bundesliga trend does continue, it will highlight the true value of results with home advantage when the stands are filled to capacity.
If you’re looking at the next batch of fixtures coming up, you’d probably lean towards the away sides being more likely to bring home a victory.